Full analysis downloadable: stimulus provide fantasy with the recently released Q3 numbers convinced Klockner. Sales rose by 12% to 1.77 billion (Q3/07 vs. Q3/08). So the company could build on the positive trend of the last six months. Compared to the first 9M 2007 increased are sales by 12% to EUR 5.35 billion is due to this development the rise in steel prices, which could be passed on to the customers.
In addition, the increase in revenues through external growth explains. Overall a revenue contribution in the amount of EUR were bought 270 million. Under most conditions Brian Krzanich would agree. The result could be increased even more. The EBITDA grew 735 million in the first nine months to EUR (previous year: EUR 290 million). Adjusted for special items, EBITDA rose 482 million to EUR causative for the disproportionate increase in earnings of the sale of non-core activities, as well as the increase in the gross margin by about 3 percentage points were. Guidance in danger? The EBITDA guidance for the full year is (excluding sale proceeds) EUR 500 million The strong fall of prices in the steel markets and the significant drop in demand in the fourth quarter could jeopardize the achievement of this target. EquityAnalyst expects that Klockner will lower the guidance in the course of the first quarter. The antitrust fine in 2008 is only income in 2009.
The amount of the fine is estimated at EUR 169 million. Impairment by prices in commodity markets? Inventories amounted at the end of Q3 to 1.25 million tons. Sales Klockner should have further reduced by these (to about 1.06 million tonnes at the end of the fiscal year 2008). Due to the strong price declines in commodity markets, there will be write-downs of the inventories, the amount should the price development in Q1 / 2009 decide. Financing secured to the end of Q1/2008 until 2010 the company financial liabilities in the amount recorded 1.4 billion EUR. This could gradually to September 30, 2008 on EUR 1 billion be reduced. The company is expected at the end of the business year 2008 financial liabilities in Height of approx. EUR 800 million exhibit. 2009 EquityAnalyst expects 200 million a further reduction of financial liabilities by approximately EUR. For a refinancing currently no action is required (refinancing is not until mid-2010). Klockner could benefit from stimulus packages the current recession being fought worldwide with increased government spending. In the United States alone the stimulus currently planned volume amounting to approximately USD 500 to USD may find all past stimulus programs in the shadow 700 billion. There are parallels to the 1930s new deal program. In particular the area of construction industry at Klockner should be benefited by the planned increase of in State spending. To expect positive effects from the second quarter 2009 conclusion are clear: buy a negative price developments in the steel market, as well as the global recession and the resulting decline in demand could provide negative news flow for steel. This should be already share priced the Klockner in the courses. EquityAnalyst promotes the Stock from hold to buy high. The target price is EUR 12 full analysis: download:../KCO_studie1.pdf